The System parties (Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats) and the upstart would-be System party (UKIP) are all now dying. The decline of the main three parties started long ago and continues.
The Conservative Party once had millions of members (in the 1950s) and was embedded in wide areas of British life. It now has (officially) 149,000 members, but its membership base is composed almost entirely of people over the age of 70 (very many over 80 years of age). It rides high in the opinion polls at present, but its apparent strength is a facade behind which is no depth. Few young people are Conservative voters, still less members. The opinion poll ratings have far more to do with Labour’s recent implosion than its own real popularity. Theresa May is a cautious and uncreative woman, who has few policy ideas and little (if any) vision. Eventually, her government must fail.
Labour was the party of the industrial proletariat and of the “labouring classes” in general. In the Britain (England, Wales and Scotland) of 2016, the proletariat of bygone days, industrial, communitarian, solidly loyal, has been replaced by a hand-to-mouth “precariat”who cannot see their future more than a month or two ahead, if that. Many in fact have sunk into what Marx termed the “lumpenproletariat”. The fact that “licensed” faux-revolutionaries such as the scribbler and TV talking head Owen Jones try to make these rootless, cultureless masses into a new “proletariat” (as in his book, “Chavs”) shows only the emptiness of the concept.
There are about 30 million people in employment in the UK, of which, now, only about 7 million belong to trade unions. Another pillar of traditional Labour Party support gone.
Labour elected Jeremy Corbyn: to me, that showed that its ordinary members and supporters understood that change was necessary in the UK. Corbyn is anti-Zionist (though does not want to take on the Zionist lobby in the UK in respect of either the faked “holocaust” narrative or in relation to the economic power of the lobby). Most Labour MPs are pawns of Zionism to a greater or lesser extent. Corbyn’s leadership has drawn in half a million enthusiastic members but, in most parts of the country, few new voters. If opinion polls are accurate, it seems that, now, only about quarter of the electorate will even consider voting Labour. Then we have the probability of boundary changes before 2020.
It is likely, that in a post-2019 House of Commons consisting of 600 MPs, Labour will have only about 150. In other words, even with SNP and other support, Labour will be unable to form a government even on a minority basis.
Corbyn-Labour is halfhearted (whether pro or anti) on the EU and favours –in effect–unrestricted immigration, both EU and non-EU. Many virtue-signalling Labour MPs have even openly supported further invasion by “refugee” hordes, including those already living in completely “safe” states such as France. These stances (and Labour’s poor opposition to State benefit changes) mean that Labour’s electability is likely to fall still further.
The Liberal Democrats, already dismissed by most voters after their craven performance in the Con Coalition of 2010-2015, can also be easily dismissed here. They have lost huge revenues along with their MP losses in 2015 (Short money etc) and the fall in numbers of LibDem local councillors. The LibDem support for the EU, trying to overturn the Brexit referendum result (in all but name) and support for mass immigration, together with boundary changes, might reduce their MP numbers to close to zero soon.
UKIP peaked in 2014, failed (by reason, so be it, of an unfair electoral system) to break through in 2015 and has now lost all credibility by reason of the circus of clowns vying for its leadership . Labour’s decline might yet lead to isolated UKIP wins, even Westminster wins, but UKIP’s day is done. Recent local and two or three Westminster by-elections chart the decline.
All of the above means that there is a political vacuum in the UK. That vacuum is not going to be filled by UKIP, could never be filled by UKIP (which failed to go full social-national after 2014). There is a place for a new movement, one which at present does not exist. If the world spins out of control, if the EU and UK economies tank, as may very well happen before 2020, social nationalism can surge into its rightful position of command. A new movement must start to emerge: social, national, green, pro-European but anti-EU, anti-New World Order, anti-Zionist. Such a movement can succeed and –I believe– will advance to victory.