Rochdale, Simon Danczuk and the General Election of 2017

Simon Danczuk

It has been announced that Simon Danczuk will not be permitted to stand again for Labour in the Rochdale constituency which he won in 2010 and retained in 2015 (with a greatly-increased majority). He has been suspended from the Labour Party since December 2015. Danczuk is said to be considering both legal action against the Labour Party and standing as Independent.

There is scarcely any point in listing in great detail the various defaults which led to that suspension. The egregious nature of the now 50-y-o Danczuk’s “private” life has been common currency for years and encompasses “sexting” to a 17-y-o girl, having sex with a recent Twitter acquaintance on the desk of Danczuk’s constituency office, several rather public affairs, numerous other activities and violent fights with his ghastly wife, Karen (failed cafe-owner, poster of Twitter and Facebook “selfies”, possibly the least-competent councillor Rochdale ever had and would-be “reality” TV “star”); also an arrest for domestic violence at his holiday home in Spain. That is before one even looks at his record for Parliamentary expenses-claiming, over-claiming and cheating:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon_Danczuk#Expenses_investigation

Danczuk’s overall expenses claims, though high, are, it seems, not as high as those made by the highest-claiming few dozen MPs.

It seems, also, that Danczuk’s CV, like those of so many MPs, is a work of semi-fantasy, obscuring as much as it reveals about his various unimpressive pre-political jobs and dodgy business dealings.

Despite all of the above (and rumours of yet worse private behaviour by him and his “estranged” wife, whom he employed –and is said to employ even now– as a supposed assistant, funded by more Parliamentary expenses claims), Danczuk is said to be a popular MP in his constituency. That would seem to be borne out by his election results.

Rochdale Constituency

Rochdale has been held several times by all three main System parties in the past century, though the last Conservative victory was in 1955. In more recent years, Rochdale has been held about equally by Labour and by the Liberals or Liberal Democrats.

Looking at the last two General Elections, Danczuk won the seat in 2010 from the Liberal Democrat who had achieved a narrow victory in 2005. In the 2010 contest, Danczuk’s vote was 36.4%, as against the LibDem’s 34.4%. The Conservative came third on 18.1%. The National Front (4.9%) and UKIP (4.4%) lost their deposits, as did two minor candidates.

In 2015, notwithstanding the gathering clouds of scandal, Danczuk and Labour achieved 46.1%. UKIP, represented by a Pakistani Muslim, received an 18.8% vote. The Conservative Party’s candidate, another Pakistani Muslim, received 17%. The LibDems, following the trend of their national vote-collapse, received 10.3%. The Green Party (3%), National Front (1%) and two minor candidates all lost their deposits (though “Rochdale First” beat both the Greens and the NF, receiving 3.4%).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rochdale_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

Analysis

I assume that Danczuk will fail in any legal action that he may take against Labour and so will be standing as an Independent. Labour may select as candidate a Pakistani Muslim to help retain the seat. Recent polling makes plain that the only main demographic still supporting Labour is the ethnic minority one. Rochdale has a high ethnic-minority electorate.

The question is whether usual-Labour voters will stick with the Labour Party or with Danczuk, their Labour MP from 2010 through 2015. It may be that the vote will split almost equally. Danczuk may be helped by Labour’s slide in popularity nationally. On the other hand, Corbyn’s anti-Zionism may help Labour in a heavily-Muslim constituency. Another imponderable factor is how much (if at all) the scandals will affect Danczuk’s vote.

The LibDem candidate is one Andy Kelly, who stood in 2015. He will be handicapped by his party’s pro-EU stance in a constituency which voted 60-40 Leave. Under “normal” circumstances, the LibDems might expect some help from disaffected former Conservative voters, but the expected Labour/Danczuk-as-Independent split may let the Conservative through the middle and that would encourage Conservative-leaning voters to stay loyal. There again, the deflation of the UKIP bubble will inevitably help the Conservative candidate.

In 2015, the combined UKIP and Conservative vote amounted to almost 36%, about 10 points behind Labour (46.1%). However, if even half of the 2015 UKIP vote goes Conservative, the 2017 Conservative vote might amount to as much as 30%. If, again, official Labour loses half or more of its votes to an Independent Danczuk, then each of those two might end up with somewhere around 20%-30%. In other words, the Conservatives have a serious chance of winning Rochdale for the first time since 1955.

Prediction

Assuming that Simon Danczuk does stand as Independent, my prediction is:

  1. Conservative;
  2. Simon Danczuk (as Independent);
  3. Labour;
  4. LibDem
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6 thoughts on “Rochdale, Simon Danczuk and the General Election of 2017”

  1. Danczuk is very typical of today’s MPs. His career has pretty much always been in politics, in various vague consulting and advisory roles that supported him while he played around at being a councillor, before it was Buggins’ turn at Westminster. For me, it’s not this specific man that is the issue – he is one of the lesser offenders anyway – it’s what he represents: an Enemy Class. We’re right back to the 18th. century, rotten boroughs, and a hated and resented political aristocracy who can be recognised practically on sight, and need to be overthrown for good.

    Sadly, I believe UKIP have failed politically and this election is, in truth, intended as their death knell. Possibly Nuttall will win Boston and Skegness, but the Conservatives will then proceed with a softened Brexit agenda, furthering business interests at the expense of the long-term national interest.

    Theresa May has played a blinder, and although we still have a month to go, the signs are auspicious for the Tories – they will win a comfortable majority, dispatch UKIP to oblivion (or deferred oblivion if Nuttall wins a seat) and the Labour Party will be humiliated (but not killed off).

    That leaves a vacuum into which something must step: perhaps a rump UKIP for the interim, or maybe a leftist Labour Party, if Corbyn hangs on. It must, I hope, be time for social-nationalism – the theme of this blog – but there is no guarantee of that. It doesn’t happen on its own. There has to be action from our side, in which we accept compromises and accommodations, adjust our strategy, and present something credible to the public, starting at a local level. Otherwise the public will look elsewhere and decide based on the credible options open to them (including NOTAP). Which of course is common sense.

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    1. Danczuk differs from many of the SpAd types in that he did at least have experience of real life, having worked at least part-time in factories etc while studying and doing political activity. Credit where due.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon_Danczuk

      He was not doing the high-grade think-tank stuff after that, just researching for organizations at his own little company, which eventually became insolvent (and I think received public monies that went missing). His Wikipedia entry mentions “researching for academics” at Lancaster University”. Not very high level in other words.

      Danczuk was a councillor for years and on committees etc. Few of the public realize that this can be
      “a nice little earner” via allowances, bonuses for committee or cabinet work etc, plus expenses. His ghastly later wife (Karen Danczuk, otherwise known only for posting internet photos of her body) also got into that for a few years and has been described as the worst councillor Rochdale ever had, incapable of understanding anything, uninterested in helping constituents. She was of course also paid for her “work”.

      It is noteworthy that Simon Danczuk was never tipped as a future minister.

      On your wider point, I am unwilling to compromise politically. What did Lenin and Hitler have in common? Firstly, that they were unwilling to compromise ideologically until they achieved full power.

      As to Paul Nuttall, I doubt that he will win Boston, though admittedly it is not impossible. The Conservative candidate and MP 2015-present is local. That will help him much.

      UKIP peaked 2014 or so. I agree with UKIP that they were cheated by FPTP voting, but the fact remains that UKIP is dead, effectively. The Con government’s adoption of Brexit has taken half the UKIP ground with the remainder (immigration) spoiled by Nuttall himself (non-white candidates, no emphasis on immigration since Farage). Also, the “libertarian” nonsense has robbed UKIP of many former Labour votes. UKIP will be very dead very soon.

      Labour may soon have only 150 MPs out of 650 and will lose more when boundary changes occur. A rump party for the ethnic minorities and public sector workers (and some of the population reliant on State benefits). It has lost most of the reason for its existence.

      I think that we are looking at Con regime government until 2022. By that time, people will be ready to accept social-nationalism as the economy and society implodes.

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      1. Both Hitler and Lenin had to compromise – Hitler especially. You have to start somewhere. In relative terms, Hitler looks militant, but extreme circumstances prevailed in Germany at that time, plus there was already a strong nationalist/conservative base in Germany that Hitler was able to build on. You have to compromise and pursue an effective methodology to get anywhere. There is also no guarantee that a collapse, if it happens, would lead to support for Nationalism. It could just as easily cause a revival of the Left, and they are better-placed than us to take advantage of such a situation as they do pursue effective methods in politics. If you are correct and the economy and society implodes, that could mean an authoritarian leftist regime along the lines of the former East Germany.

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      2. Everything in the present situation proves that, in the UK, a national image is more likely to be accepted in the UK than an internationalist, esp. Marxist, image. I never use “right” and “left”, which are so misleading.

        You mention East Germany. I was (though briefly) in the DDR in 1988. I do not know whether “right” or “left” would be a better description of that strange state in which I spent a couple of days (travelling by car from Poland to West Germany).

        UKIP tried to compromise. From 1993 to its effective collapse (2015-present) it pulled out all the stops: expelled any ex-BNP, ex-NF etc members; expelled anyone found to have tweeted the unapproved version of the “holocaust” narrative etc. UKIP really tried to play the “we’re nationalist but OK, so don’t be hard on us, msm/System.” It failed. It was allowed airtime etc, given publicity so that it could act as a safety valve for the discontent of the people, but the Zionists mostly hated it anyway and none of its careful middle of road-ism helped one iota. Look at the result: a few MEPs, soon to be gone, no MPs, hardly any local councillors even! 24 years for nothing, though it did have an influence re getting the EU referendum. I give it that much.

        If the present System society does implode, people will grasp at straws. They will grasp at social nationalism before Corbynist “socialism”. It is in the DNA, literally.

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  2. That just sounds like a waiting for Godot-style of utopianism. The result will just be a mixed-race country. By hoping that the public will vote the right way when some future cataclysm happens, in my view you’re deferring necessary action.

    You say: “They [the public] will grasp at social nationalism”. But they already are grasping at social nationalism. The problem is that they have nobody credible offering it. We’ve left the battlefield.

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